The NFL Guru

The situation is Dallas is the closest thing to a soap-opera in American sports, but it comes with the name, “America’s Team”. When your nickname is your country, pressure is automatically applied, which leads to inconsistency whether you are Peyton Manning or…well…Tony Romo. Pressure has killed the Cowboys, after Troy Aikman began to pursue the profession of commentating. Starting Quarterbacks have come and gone since 2001: Quincy Carter, Anthony Wright, Ryan Leaf, Clint Stoerner, Chad Hutchinson, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson, Drew Bledsoe, Tony Romo, Brad Johnson. Throughout this constant switching of Quarterbacks, the Cowboys have won zero playoff games. 8 years after the retirement of Troy Aikman and Dallas is stuck in the same rut, though Cowboy fans believe that their current Quarterback in Tony Romo is their future, but consistency is what Dallas needed for the past 8 years and Tony is at the height inconsistency. The win-streaks don’t lie. Though his career win-loss record seems contradicting at 28-13, I have another little tidbit of info for you, his playoff record is 0-2. The reason that Tony doesn’t exactly thrive when it counts is because of hype, not just any hype but Dallas Cowboy hype. As soon as the Cowboys break their winning streak with a disappointing loss, the fans are silenced and there is no hype coming into the game. That is when Tony Romo thrives. Once the hypometer has drained out, the Cowboys make a confidence-boosting victory, but confidence leads to Dallas Cowboy hype, thats when they lose, and the same pattern repeats itself again and again. Right now, the Cowboys are 5-3 and the hype is higher than ever heading into Philadelphia. In the words of the majestic Terrell Owens, “Getcha’ popcorn ready”.

Lock: Jacksonville +3@ Tennessee: The Jaguars are a 3-3 football team. The Tennessee Titans are not. The Tennessee Titans are an 0-6 team, the worst part is that the suicidal 2006 ROY Vince Young is starting for the first time since 2008 for the Titans. Though there isn’t much worse than 8 Interceptions in 6 games (Kerry Collins), much, much worse can be committed when Vince Young is in the huddle. Over the course of 5 passing attempts this season, “InVincible” is far from invincible committing an interception, a fumble, completions and 0 passing yards. On the opposite side of the line of scrimmage are the Jaguars who have won 3 of their last 4 games. In fact, Jacksonville just beat the Titans in week 5 37-17. This matchup is so lopsided that 80 000 screaming fans cannot compensate for, and for the Titans to be the favourite is offensive for the Jacksonville Jaguars organization.

Over/Under: Jacksonville @ Tennessee Under 44.5: Again, Vince Young is the last quarterback to lead his team to half of 44.5 points. Both team will have to rely on their offence to win the game due to the lack of offensive explosiveness on sides off the ball. In 6 of 7 of their last games together, the score has been under 44.5.

1. New York Giants- Once the 2008 season concluded, there were many worries involving Eli without Plax, but now two other young receivers have stepped up into the spotlight by the names of Mario Manningham and Steve Smith (combining for 420 yard and 3 Touchdowns in just two weeks), not that Steve Smith, the other one.  Can the Giants step up and go all the way for the second time in three years or will the absence of Plaxico Burress affect their performance, that question won’t be answered until the season ends but with a stout defence and a consistent offence starring Eli Manning, there is no reason to count the giants out of the Superbowl race.

2. Peyton Manning/Indianapolis Colts- The Hall-Of-Famer 34-year-old is looking vigorous as ever and age is not an aspect at all. Indy relies on Peyton like no other team in league but there is no reason to change their ways with a 116-48 record with Peyton Manning as the starting quarterback. But with a terrible running game and a struggling defence, that could be a load that even Peyton Manning will will struggle with. But until then, Peyton alone is an unstoppable offence.

3. Denver Broncos- The ultimate goal of sports is to win the game, and that is exactly what Kyle Orton is doing. When Orton starts to lose football games is when we should be judging his performance, until then, what more do you want from a Quarterback he has led you to 6-0. Though Denver’s amazing start is mainly due to their incredibly easy schedule so far and their stellar defence only letting in 11.5 points against per game. The Broncos schedule has been a walk in the park, but they are going to get whats coming to them sooner or later playing New England, then San Diego, then Baltimore, then Pittsburgh, then San Diego again, then the New York Giants, now there is no walk in the park.

4. New Orleans Saints- Their defence is holding up, their rushing offence 2nd in the NFL (170.7 yards/game) and Drew Brees has 9 passing TDs, but most importantly, they have a 4-0 start to the season and nothing seems to be slowing them down. When you slow down Drew Brees’ passing game, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell rise to the occasion. It a pick-your-poison situation. 3 of 4 teams have chosen Brees.

5. Minnesota Vikings- Brett Favre has surprisingly earned himself a round of applause, which is exactly what Minneapolis has given him. Another pleasant surprise is that Adrian Peterson’s healthiness is at it’s highest of his NFL career. The most astonishing part of this winning streak is that Favre is playing rather conservatively. The stats don’t lie, 104.7 passer rating and an 8:1 TD to Interception ratio. Now that Favre has settled in, the Vikings are about to make their way into the top tier of the NFL.

While winning against sports books is tough and doing so consistently is near impossible, these tips will give you the upper hand against sports books.  If used effectively and consistently these tips will help you make you a profit as they’ve done to me.  The goal here isn’t to completely eliminate your losses, for obvious reasons, but my aim is to help you minimize them.  Here are 14 surefire ways to beat the sports books.

1.    Be prepared to lose: The odds are always against you, always.  The good news is that the usual “take” for the sports books is only 2.5 %, which means you, only have to win 53 % to make a profit.  That’s still extremely difficult to do consistently though so be prepared to take some lumps along the road.

2.    Realize you’re not smarter than the bookmakers: No offense but the amount of knowledge you have is nowhere near that of the guys at sports books.  The guys who, “make the numbers on the sides”, oddsmaker-speak for setting the point spreads on each of the games, are incredibly smart.  They know how you’re going to bet before you do, and allow for your prejudices.  Trying to outsmart these guys isn’t going to work, instead try to get these guys on your side.  We’ll get into how to get them on your side a little bit later on.

3.    Know your opponent: As a bettor you’re betting against both the sports books and every other bettor as well.  Vegas tries to get half of the betting population on either side of each game and they’ll adjust the betting lines to do so.  Therefore if you see that 90 % of the betting population is on the opposite side of you wait until the last moment to place your bet as the line will probably improve for the team with 10 % of the money.

4.    Make your own lines and then compare them to Vegas’ lines: Before you even look at Vegas’ lines for a certain game analyze the game in your mind.  A predicted score and any variables that may affect that score- like injuries or weather- then compare your line to the line that Vegas has set.  This gives you an indication of whether you’d like to bet on the game or not.  If your line is really close to theirs’ the game is basically a toss up and you should avoid it but if you get more than 3 points difference than there is potential for a win.

5.    Look for value: Don’t bet games that you can’t pick a winner.  If you’re undecided and you’re betting a game your leaving it completely to chance and you won’t win consistently by doing this.  Very few lines have any real value, and you should focus on the games that do.  Betting the ones that don’t usually results in losses.

6.    Realize the obvious pick is usually wrong: This is a concept that many bettors don’t understand or just refuse to acknowledge but the reality is that sports books don’t like to give away money.  About once every week there is a game that seems to have an obvious pick.  These are the games you want to AVOID because they are usually sucker bets.  They entice you with seemingly biased lines when really they know something you don’t- injuries that aren’t made public and really overrated teams seem to be the most common.  Don’t be the fool who gets sucked into betting these games because most of the time you’ll lose.  This can sometimes be shown by over 90% of the public being on one side of the bet.  Beware of these situations.

7.    Bet against the public consensus: The public has favorites, as do most people and sports books are aware of the public’s tendencies and biases.  Big tendencies include betting on the certain “public” teams, betting on the favorites, the over and putting too much emphasis on recent success.  These are some of the things that cause the biased lines which create opportunities for you.  Therefore you should generally bet against the public and take the opposite teams because Vegas accounts for these tendencies by putting more value on the opposite plays.  Still following?

8.    Don’t bet more than a few games each week: Some bettors seem to think that they have the best chance of winning if they bet on a lot of games.  They don’t seem to realize that by doing this you undermine your own knowledge and predictions by spreading out your bets.  Quality over quantity is crucial in betting.  Value picks will win, the rest are 50-50.  Don’t waste your time making picks on lines with little to no value.  Instead focus your time on finding good value in a few lines and bet those select few.

9.    Don’t bet with or against your heart: This is a tricky subject for some but it depends on your attitude as a bettor.  A casual bettor generally likes betting on their favorite team because it adds to the intensity of the game.  While this is good and fun for a casual bettor, you won’t win any money by doing this.  If you plan on winning you can’t worry about who you like or dislike- it just comes down to 53 guys that you think will beat another group of 53 guys on a particular day.  No allegiances can come in between you and your winnings.

10.    Look for trends: Many sites like covers.com provide lists of trends for each game.  The key is finding the most relevant and important trends and applying them.  If a team is “32-3-12 following a home loss on Sunday night games while playing on artificial turf” that usually means nothing, don’t let that sway your judgment.  It’s major ones like how a team is doing coming off a win or coming off a loss or playing against really good teams that matter.  Keep those in mind when you’re figuring out your lines for # 4 on this list.

11.    Shop around for the best line: Different sports books have different lines for each game.  Look for the best one for your chosen bet because that half a point that you gain could make all the difference.  In tip # 1 I told you that bookies take 2.5 % off the top, well this is your chance to eliminate that advantage.  By getting the best line each time you bet, you switch that all-important advantage over to your side.

12.    Bet on good coaches: This may seem like an odd one but in clutch situations, the better coach usually prevails.  If one coach is significantly better then the other than that gives one team a huge advantage that is usually overlooked by the general public.  Take coaches into account when making your predictions because they’re an important aspect of winning games.

13.    Beware of the parlay: Parlays are a big source of income for bookies.  They entice you with big payoffs but rarely payout.  In general, it’s best to avoid betting parlays because they shift the take of the book a lot higher. That’s really good but those games come up very rarely.  There are times when a parlay can be beneficial.  For example when a really good offense plays a really good defense, you can play the offense with the over or the defense with the under and one of those will usually pay out.

14.    Screw your instincts: They’re overrated.  Who you think is going to win is never correct just because your instincts told you so.  Some bettors claim to have success with “just betting what my instincts tell me” but that’s a load of crap.  Betting on instincts just won’t win consistently.  You may get lucky for a while but in the long run you can’t win.  Look for value plays instead of relying on uneducated, random guesses.

15.    Don’t get to emotionally invested: Often in betting, a hot streak will get you too high or a cold streak will do the reverse.  The key is to remove the extreme highs and lows and keep an even keel.