The NFL Guru

1. Indianapolis Colts- I wouldn’t be surprised if Peyton breaks Joe Montana’s record for passing yards in a season this year. Peyton has been waiting for 4 years for a deep, proven, and healthy group of receivers like this season’s (Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie). The Colts have, virtually the team as last year’s 14-2 Colts with a few decent rookie prosecutes and the returning Anthony Gonzalez. Things are looking very promising for Indy, Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne, and Peyton Manning are aging like fine wines, Bob Sanders is relatively healthy and active for now, and a few young defensive gems in Jarod Powers and Eric Foster.

2. New Orleans Saints- The Saints have too many offensive weapons for even an elite defence to handle, but on the opposing side of the line of scrimmage, their front 7 aren’t Superbowl caliber. That may be the reason they won’t repeat, luckily, few depth chart changes have been made through the offseason, so their opponents are still lining up against the Superbowl champions.

3. Dallas Cowboys- Big D has a very big D, that wordplay was hardly a pun, but an accurate description of the Dallas Cowboys’ defence- big. I have a strong feeling that their defines will shine. Demarcus Ware is scary, no Running Back has the courage to run through that wall. Though the Dallas D can get burnt on a few plays. I wouldn’t call them a bend-but-don’t-break, but a better definition would break-but-don’t-bend. On the offense, the Cowboys are an amazing team to watch, with the exciting Tony Romo, and the egos of Roy Williams and Dez Bryant, not to mention the explosive 3-headed monster on the ground in Barber, Choice, and Jones.

Tier 1 (RBs)- ELITE

1. Chris Johnson- When you’re given the first overall pick in your fantasy draft, pick this guy. The best part of of owning this fantasy star is his consistency; without a game under 100 yards in his last 10 games.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew- Without the aging Fred Taylor in the Jacksonville Depth chart, MJD gets all the carries to himself. Be disappointed if Jones-Drew does find the end zone once every week.

3. Adrian Peterson- AD has the ability to single-handedly carry your fantasy team to a win in your weekly matchup. Though there are weeks where Peterson is virtually a non-factor.

4. Ray Rice- Last season, Rice’s defining moment was his second carry of his playoff career where he brought it to house for an 83 yard TD, and then repeated that later in that game. Thats what I expect from him next season, although, I’m worried about his lack of TDs.

Tier 2 (RBs)- 1st Round Backs

5. Steven Jackson- The St. Louis offence is improving, while still building around Steven Jackson, which means more Touchdowns for Stevie. Being one of the most talented running backs in league, Jackson should find the end zone 8+ times rather than 4 in 2009.

6. Frank Gore- With a mediocre passing game and a decent offensive line, gore should be able to pull off a 10 TD, 1300 yd season. But I can’t see him having a breakout year.

7. Rashard Mendenhall- Until Ben Roethlisberger comes back from his suspension, the Steelers will run it up the gut all season, and his elite offensive line won’t disappoint.

8. Ryan Mathews- To be a top 10 fantasy back takes a few years of solid NFL statistics, Mathews has none. Drafting a rookie with health issues in the first round is beyond risky, but if he drops to the mid-second round, go for him. After all, Ladainian Tomlinson was in the same situation 8 years ago.

9. Cedric Benson- If Benson runs like he did last year, he could turn out to be a top 5 back. Unfortunately, I doubt that assumption. I have a feeling that Cedric Benson’s numbers will simply plateau this season (in other words, they won’t live up to last year, but they also won’t plummet).

Tier 3 (RBs)- Solid Starters

10. Michael Turner- Michael Turner is not a 3-dimenional back, nor is he a decent goal line back, so if your 1st round pick doesn’t get TDs or receptions, are he gives you is measly rushing yards.

11. DeAngelo Williams- The Carolina Panthers’ running attack is so strong that a player who shares his carries can still be a top 10 back. The tandem of Williams and Stewart is fierce, and with a decent QB to play with, DeAngelo can receive some more receptions.

12. Knowshon Moreno- Once Kyle Orton and the Denver defence cooled off last season, the Broncos’ offence became ineffective. If the Broncos continue their patterns this year, Knowshon is a no-show.

13. Jamaal Charles- being the undisputed starter will help Jamaal tremendously. Although he exhibits a mediocre rushing ability, somebody on the Chiefs has to score the small amount of Touchdowns the Chiefs score.

14. Ryan Grant- Watching Ryan Grant run is like watch a train go by. He doesn’t make any sudden cuts, nor does he even turn, but he’s fast and whoever is brave enough to get in his way deserves a medal.

15. Shonn Greene- Without a 100-yard rushing game that wasn’t against Oakland or a TD that wasn’t against Oakland, we are supposed to believe that Greene can win the starting spot over LT and then top it off with a few rushing TDs.

1. Miles Austin- 5 uncanny fantasy weeks don’t bring a guy from NFL scrub to top 10 fantasy wideout. Another or Austin’s bust indicators is his wide-receiver competition. Romo has several talented weapons his huge egos. Dez Bryant, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton will all have 50-reception seasons, but where does that leave Austin?

2. Michael Turner- It seemed like whenever I looked at the weekly injury report, Michael Turner was nearly always getting nicked up. Another downside on Turner is that his receptions will decline due to Jerious Norwood being the more reliable 3-dimensional back as well as a decline in TD’s due to Jason Snelling taking over the goal line rushes. You need a solid, versatile back in the first round, and if Turner’s stats this year are anything like what his last year’s numbers were, I wouldn’t touch this guy with a 10-foot pole.

3. Adrian Peterson- AD is inconsistent. In ‘09, Peterson rushed for under 4.0 yds/carry in 8 of his 16 games. At that rate, Peterson would have to rush for 35 carries for an effective fantasy week. Thought Peterson did remain healthy thought the season, at the 2nd overall pick, you need a back that can lead your team to victory every week.

4. Brandon Marshall- Migrating from a pass-happy system in Denver with Jay Cutler in ‘08 and Kyle Orton in ‘09 to a smashmouth offense with basically a sophomore quarter in Chad Henne in Miami will hurt his stats. The suspension isn’t nearly as concerning but it is more of the icing on the cake. Stay away from Marshall in the first three rounds if you want to win your league.

5. Marques Colston- In a mediocre 2009 season, Colston only achieved two 100-yard games all year. Drew Brees and the New Orleans passing game were on fire all season and have nowhere to go but down, leaving Hofstra star with under 1000 yards, a few TD’s, and couple of deteriorating injuries.

6. Jason Witten- Lets face it, TD’s are a fantasy necessity, and Witten is the last play Romo will pass two is the red zone this season with only 2 Touchdown receptions last year. Romo will be too busy taking caring of Dez Bryant, Roy Williams, Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, Tashard Choice, Felix Jones, and Marion Barber III to pass to the reliable Jason Witten.

7. Eli Manning- Tom Coughlin hasn’t given this young quarterback too much to handle, and Coughlin learned that the hard way (55 interceptions from ‘05 to ‘07). Don’t expect too many fantasy points this season, escially with his passing options; Hakeem Nicks, Kevin Boss, and Steve Smith.

8. Ryan Grant- Grant’s numbers have diminished over his three years in the NFL, and the Packers have become increasingly pass-happy. The addition of multiple pass-blockers this off-season is an indicator of less rush and more pass.

9. Carson Palmer- Marvin Lewis will be leaning towards the rush this season. Cedric Benson will reach the 300-rush mark once again, leaving Carson with less passing attempts. With the Cincinnati passing game diminishing, Palmer is now left with Chad Ochocinco double-covered and not much else to pass to.

10. Larry Fitzgerald- With the absence of two key passing weapons (Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin), Larry will be double covered every game, which is a stat killer. This year, the Card’s can’t rally on the inexperienced mess of Matt Leinart, so Coach Ken will use his running game in Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells.

1. Indianapolis Colts: What is stopping the Colts from a perfect regular-season record? Baltimore? Denver? Not likely. Seeing the immaculacy of Peyton Manning come alive in the clutch against New England, skepticists finally saw that this team is the real deal. Peyton certainly has the ability to carry his team through the season, he has proven that the past 3 or 4 years and their defence has risen to the occasion leading the league in points against (15.8). So the next time you start to doubt that Manning and the colts can pull off what New England did 2 years ago, just say to yourself, “why not?”

2. New England Patriots: Discard the 6-3 start, now look at the numbers. Their overall statistics make it seem like their up there with New Orleans and Indianapolis being that they are 3rd in the league in points against and 3rd in the league in points for. Unfortunately NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has chosen that the points for : points against ratio is not the deciding factor of who gets into the playoffs, therefore the Patriots have no chance of achieving home-field advantage and little chance of achieving a 1st round bye.

3. New Orleans Saints: Through the past few years, the New Orleans Saints have underachieved due to their lack of talent on defence. Now, they are able to manipulate their air-it-out style offence starring Drew Brees, and the Saints defence is stepping up as well. The Saints aren’t exactly on fire though, in fact some could suggest that they are slumping despite their 9-0. They started the season off with a bang while scoring 46.5 per game setting records left, right, and centre, then they started to simmer down as their scoring difference begin to be closer and closer, at this point of season, they have fought through 4 straight close games, 3 of 4 were divisional games and sooner or later they won’t be as fortunate. I will look forward to their Week 12 Monday Night Football match-up against the Patriots.

4. Minnesota Vikings: Whether it is Brett Favre or Adrian Peterson, you are going to get beat. Some could suggest that the Vikings aren’t one of the elite teams is the league, tell that the their 9-1 record. Lately, the Vikes have been flying under the radar the past few weeks but the chances of Clinching the NFC home-field advantage is anything but decided with Minnesota breathing down the Saints neck. If only these two NFC powerhouses met at some point this season, which would probably decide who would be the more Superbowl-ready team.

5. Dallas Cowboys: I don’t know, one week they are playing as if they are the best team in the NFL, two weeks, their offence is completely disabled. Hype is killing these Cowboys and the last thing I think they are years from a Superbowl title. This isn’t their year, perhaps next year Tony Romo and the Cowboys will regain their consistency. On the other hand, the Cowboys are far from out with a 7-3 record mid-season with the NFC East Divisional title a few wins away but overall, they don’t have enough poise and consistency to win their first playoff game since 1995.

6. Arizona Cardinals: Maybe their fans put too much pressure on them, maybe the expectations of them playing at home are too high, maybe they feed off disappointment, maybe its just a coincidence . Who knows, but for some reason, they 5-0 on the road and 2-3 at home. Anquan Boldin is back and Warner and Fitzgerald are excited, with a fairly easy schedule ahead of them and a 6-1 record in their past 7 games , there is no reason to count them out of the Superbowl race.

7. San Diego Chargers: Throughout the years, this team came from an offence owned by the running game, leaned more and more towards the pass and presently Ladainian Tomlinson averages 3.3 yards per rush and the Chargers are last in the league rushing the ball, but don’t worry, Phillip Rivers has got it all under control leading his team to a 7-3 start the the season. Though San Diego’s passing success is not all due to Rivers, with the most underrated Wide Receiver in the game in Vincent Jackson and the best Tight End in the NFL in Antonio gates, its pretty hard not to be able to put up his numbers.

8. Cincinnati Bengals: Fans are getting mixed messages by the Bengals. First they go and push around two of the toughest teams in the league to push around by sweeping both the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0, then they go and lose the following game to the Oakland Raiders 20-17 scoring just 3 second-half points while fumbling 5 times. Carson Palmer thought he had the game won with a 14-0 coming into halftime but started to get sloppy in the second half and the Raiders rallied back to win the game, but Cincinnati should be able to take advantage of a weak schedule of play Oakland, then Cleveland, then Detroit.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh should have been able to capitalize on Cincinnati losing an almost automatic win but while that game was being played, Pittsburgh did the same, losing an easy one to Kansas City. Just like the Bengals, Ben Roethlisberger thought he had the game won with a 17-7 coming into halftime but started to get sloppy in the second half and the Chiefs rallied back to win the game in overtime. Neither team played well at all, but it was a worse loss for the Steelers because they are now in a spot where they likely won’t win the Divisional Title and they are now in a tight race with the Jaguars, the Broncos and many others for the 2  AFC wildcard spots.

10. Denver Broncos: Don’t count them out just because they are slumping, I believe that the climax of their slump is over. They will be up and running just like the early-season Broncos by the end of next week, which is when Kyle Orton will be fully recovered from his ankle injury 3 weeks ago. The last thing that the Broncos want is to have to start Chris Simms next Sunday when they need a win to have a chance to get into the playoffs.