The NFL Guru

1. Indianapolis Colts: What is stopping the Colts from a perfect regular-season record? Baltimore? Denver? Not likely. Seeing the immaculacy of Peyton Manning come alive in the clutch against New England, skepticists finally saw that this team is the real deal. Peyton certainly has the ability to carry his team through the season, he has proven that the past 3 or 4 years and their defence has risen to the occasion leading the league in points against (15.8). So the next time you start to doubt that Manning and the colts can pull off what New England did 2 years ago, just say to yourself, “why not?”

2. New England Patriots: Discard the 6-3 start, now look at the numbers. Their overall statistics make it seem like their up there with New Orleans and Indianapolis being that they are 3rd in the league in points against and 3rd in the league in points for. Unfortunately NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has chosen that the points for : points against ratio is not the deciding factor of who gets into the playoffs, therefore the Patriots have no chance of achieving home-field advantage and little chance of achieving a 1st round bye.

3. New Orleans Saints: Through the past few years, the New Orleans Saints have underachieved due to their lack of talent on defence. Now, they are able to manipulate their air-it-out style offence starring Drew Brees, and the Saints defence is stepping up as well. The Saints aren’t exactly on fire though, in fact some could suggest that they are slumping despite their 9-0. They started the season off with a bang while scoring 46.5 per game setting records left, right, and centre, then they started to simmer down as their scoring difference begin to be closer and closer, at this point of season, they have fought through 4 straight close games, 3 of 4 were divisional games and sooner or later they won’t be as fortunate. I will look forward to their Week 12 Monday Night Football match-up against the Patriots.

4. Minnesota Vikings: Whether it is Brett Favre or Adrian Peterson, you are going to get beat. Some could suggest that the Vikings aren’t one of the elite teams is the league, tell that the their 9-1 record. Lately, the Vikes have been flying under the radar the past few weeks but the chances of Clinching the NFC home-field advantage is anything but decided with Minnesota breathing down the Saints neck. If only these two NFC powerhouses met at some point this season, which would probably decide who would be the more Superbowl-ready team.

5. Dallas Cowboys: I don’t know, one week they are playing as if they are the best team in the NFL, two weeks, their offence is completely disabled. Hype is killing these Cowboys and the last thing I think they are years from a Superbowl title. This isn’t their year, perhaps next year Tony Romo and the Cowboys will regain their consistency. On the other hand, the Cowboys are far from out with a 7-3 record mid-season with the NFC East Divisional title a few wins away but overall, they don’t have enough poise and consistency to win their first playoff game since 1995.

6. Arizona Cardinals: Maybe their fans put too much pressure on them, maybe the expectations of them playing at home are too high, maybe they feed off disappointment, maybe its just a coincidence . Who knows, but for some reason, they 5-0 on the road and 2-3 at home. Anquan Boldin is back and Warner and Fitzgerald are excited, with a fairly easy schedule ahead of them and a 6-1 record in their past 7 games , there is no reason to count them out of the Superbowl race.

7. San Diego Chargers: Throughout the years, this team came from an offence owned by the running game, leaned more and more towards the pass and presently Ladainian Tomlinson averages 3.3 yards per rush and the Chargers are last in the league rushing the ball, but don’t worry, Phillip Rivers has got it all under control leading his team to a 7-3 start the the season. Though San Diego’s passing success is not all due to Rivers, with the most underrated Wide Receiver in the game in Vincent Jackson and the best Tight End in the NFL in Antonio gates, its pretty hard not to be able to put up his numbers.

8. Cincinnati Bengals: Fans are getting mixed messages by the Bengals. First they go and push around two of the toughest teams in the league to push around by sweeping both the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0, then they go and lose the following game to the Oakland Raiders 20-17 scoring just 3 second-half points while fumbling 5 times. Carson Palmer thought he had the game won with a 14-0 coming into halftime but started to get sloppy in the second half and the Raiders rallied back to win the game, but Cincinnati should be able to take advantage of a weak schedule of play Oakland, then Cleveland, then Detroit.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh should have been able to capitalize on Cincinnati losing an almost automatic win but while that game was being played, Pittsburgh did the same, losing an easy one to Kansas City. Just like the Bengals, Ben Roethlisberger thought he had the game won with a 17-7 coming into halftime but started to get sloppy in the second half and the Chiefs rallied back to win the game in overtime. Neither team played well at all, but it was a worse loss for the Steelers because they are now in a spot where they likely won’t win the Divisional Title and they are now in a tight race with the Jaguars, the Broncos and many others for the 2  AFC wildcard spots.

10. Denver Broncos: Don’t count them out just because they are slumping, I believe that the climax of their slump is over. They will be up and running just like the early-season Broncos by the end of next week, which is when Kyle Orton will be fully recovered from his ankle injury 3 weeks ago. The last thing that the Broncos want is to have to start Chris Simms next Sunday when they need a win to have a chance to get into the playoffs.

From a bunch of reckless hooligans running into each other to questionably the most complex sport in the world. Over Decades of improving the game, the NFL timeline has not led the fans or players to a position where NFL football is at all simple to understand. In fact, the lack of simplicity involving rules and intelligent gameplay are leading some quarterbacks to confusion and utter frustration.

Each year, offences and defences find ways to remain one step above the competition using the psychological approach, confusion. Though there is always a way to counter it, playbooks are getting thicker, fans are inserting more pressure, and coaches have higher expectations leading for a bit too much to account for as a Quarterback. The Quarterback position isn’t just run and catch, which is why the some Quarterbacks are failing miserably.

Take Jamarcus Russell, one of the most athletic players in the game. He has the body of a linebackers, a cannon for an arm and a little bit of speed to top it off. Judging by his statistics at the NFL rookie combine, the Oakland Raiders chose him first overall in the 2006 Draft. To this day, JaMarcus Russell has been a major disappointment to the fans of Oakland, but he still remains the starting quarterback. With stats like this: Passer Rating- 48.3, PYPG- 125.0, TD-INT Ratio- 1:4.5, Completion%- 48.4., it is surprising that he is so magnificent physically. Well theres no surprise at all actually, it is because he lacks the understanding of the game, he lacks the ability to read defensive packages, he lack the confidence to lead his team to victory using his awareness of the game of Football, and few have those abilities, even fewer are able to manipulate those abilities.

These days, defences can apply so much pressure on a Quarterback that he does not have the talent measure up. That is why more and more Quarterbacks are failing in the NFL (e.g. Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Josh Johnson, Marc Bulger, Trent Edwards, Kerry Collins).

1. New York Giants- Once the 2008 season concluded, there were many worries involving Eli without Plax, but now two other young receivers have stepped up into the spotlight by the names of Mario Manningham and Steve Smith (combining for 420 yard and 3 Touchdowns in just two weeks), not that Steve Smith, the other one.  Can the Giants step up and go all the way for the second time in three years or will the absence of Plaxico Burress affect their performance, that question won’t be answered until the season ends but with a stout defence and a consistent offence starring Eli Manning, there is no reason to count the giants out of the Superbowl race.

2. Peyton Manning/Indianapolis Colts- The Hall-Of-Famer 34-year-old is looking vigorous as ever and age is not an aspect at all. Indy relies on Peyton like no other team in league but there is no reason to change their ways with a 116-48 record with Peyton Manning as the starting quarterback. But with a terrible running game and a struggling defence, that could be a load that even Peyton Manning will will struggle with. But until then, Peyton alone is an unstoppable offence.

3. Denver Broncos- The ultimate goal of sports is to win the game, and that is exactly what Kyle Orton is doing. When Orton starts to lose football games is when we should be judging his performance, until then, what more do you want from a Quarterback he has led you to 6-0. Though Denver’s amazing start is mainly due to their incredibly easy schedule so far and their stellar defence only letting in 11.5 points against per game. The Broncos schedule has been a walk in the park, but they are going to get whats coming to them sooner or later playing New England, then San Diego, then Baltimore, then Pittsburgh, then San Diego again, then the New York Giants, now there is no walk in the park.

4. New Orleans Saints- Their defence is holding up, their rushing offence 2nd in the NFL (170.7 yards/game) and Drew Brees has 9 passing TDs, but most importantly, they have a 4-0 start to the season and nothing seems to be slowing them down. When you slow down Drew Brees’ passing game, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell rise to the occasion. It a pick-your-poison situation. 3 of 4 teams have chosen Brees.

5. Minnesota Vikings- Brett Favre has surprisingly earned himself a round of applause, which is exactly what Minneapolis has given him. Another pleasant surprise is that Adrian Peterson’s healthiness is at it’s highest of his NFL career. The most astonishing part of this winning streak is that Favre is playing rather conservatively. The stats don’t lie, 104.7 passer rating and an 8:1 TD to Interception ratio. Now that Favre has settled in, the Vikings are about to make their way into the top tier of the NFL.

While winning against sports books is tough and doing so consistently is near impossible, these tips will give you the upper hand against sports books.  If used effectively and consistently these tips will help you make you a profit as they’ve done to me.  The goal here isn’t to completely eliminate your losses, for obvious reasons, but my aim is to help you minimize them.  Here are 14 surefire ways to beat the sports books.

1.    Be prepared to lose: The odds are always against you, always.  The good news is that the usual “take” for the sports books is only 2.5 %, which means you, only have to win 53 % to make a profit.  That’s still extremely difficult to do consistently though so be prepared to take some lumps along the road.

2.    Realize you’re not smarter than the bookmakers: No offense but the amount of knowledge you have is nowhere near that of the guys at sports books.  The guys who, “make the numbers on the sides”, oddsmaker-speak for setting the point spreads on each of the games, are incredibly smart.  They know how you’re going to bet before you do, and allow for your prejudices.  Trying to outsmart these guys isn’t going to work, instead try to get these guys on your side.  We’ll get into how to get them on your side a little bit later on.

3.    Know your opponent: As a bettor you’re betting against both the sports books and every other bettor as well.  Vegas tries to get half of the betting population on either side of each game and they’ll adjust the betting lines to do so.  Therefore if you see that 90 % of the betting population is on the opposite side of you wait until the last moment to place your bet as the line will probably improve for the team with 10 % of the money.

4.    Make your own lines and then compare them to Vegas’ lines: Before you even look at Vegas’ lines for a certain game analyze the game in your mind.  A predicted score and any variables that may affect that score- like injuries or weather- then compare your line to the line that Vegas has set.  This gives you an indication of whether you’d like to bet on the game or not.  If your line is really close to theirs’ the game is basically a toss up and you should avoid it but if you get more than 3 points difference than there is potential for a win.

5.    Look for value: Don’t bet games that you can’t pick a winner.  If you’re undecided and you’re betting a game your leaving it completely to chance and you won’t win consistently by doing this.  Very few lines have any real value, and you should focus on the games that do.  Betting the ones that don’t usually results in losses.

6.    Realize the obvious pick is usually wrong: This is a concept that many bettors don’t understand or just refuse to acknowledge but the reality is that sports books don’t like to give away money.  About once every week there is a game that seems to have an obvious pick.  These are the games you want to AVOID because they are usually sucker bets.  They entice you with seemingly biased lines when really they know something you don’t- injuries that aren’t made public and really overrated teams seem to be the most common.  Don’t be the fool who gets sucked into betting these games because most of the time you’ll lose.  This can sometimes be shown by over 90% of the public being on one side of the bet.  Beware of these situations.

7.    Bet against the public consensus: The public has favorites, as do most people and sports books are aware of the public’s tendencies and biases.  Big tendencies include betting on the certain “public” teams, betting on the favorites, the over and putting too much emphasis on recent success.  These are some of the things that cause the biased lines which create opportunities for you.  Therefore you should generally bet against the public and take the opposite teams because Vegas accounts for these tendencies by putting more value on the opposite plays.  Still following?

8.    Don’t bet more than a few games each week: Some bettors seem to think that they have the best chance of winning if they bet on a lot of games.  They don’t seem to realize that by doing this you undermine your own knowledge and predictions by spreading out your bets.  Quality over quantity is crucial in betting.  Value picks will win, the rest are 50-50.  Don’t waste your time making picks on lines with little to no value.  Instead focus your time on finding good value in a few lines and bet those select few.

9.    Don’t bet with or against your heart: This is a tricky subject for some but it depends on your attitude as a bettor.  A casual bettor generally likes betting on their favorite team because it adds to the intensity of the game.  While this is good and fun for a casual bettor, you won’t win any money by doing this.  If you plan on winning you can’t worry about who you like or dislike- it just comes down to 53 guys that you think will beat another group of 53 guys on a particular day.  No allegiances can come in between you and your winnings.

10.    Look for trends: Many sites like covers.com provide lists of trends for each game.  The key is finding the most relevant and important trends and applying them.  If a team is “32-3-12 following a home loss on Sunday night games while playing on artificial turf” that usually means nothing, don’t let that sway your judgment.  It’s major ones like how a team is doing coming off a win or coming off a loss or playing against really good teams that matter.  Keep those in mind when you’re figuring out your lines for # 4 on this list.

11.    Shop around for the best line: Different sports books have different lines for each game.  Look for the best one for your chosen bet because that half a point that you gain could make all the difference.  In tip # 1 I told you that bookies take 2.5 % off the top, well this is your chance to eliminate that advantage.  By getting the best line each time you bet, you switch that all-important advantage over to your side.

12.    Bet on good coaches: This may seem like an odd one but in clutch situations, the better coach usually prevails.  If one coach is significantly better then the other than that gives one team a huge advantage that is usually overlooked by the general public.  Take coaches into account when making your predictions because they’re an important aspect of winning games.

13.    Beware of the parlay: Parlays are a big source of income for bookies.  They entice you with big payoffs but rarely payout.  In general, it’s best to avoid betting parlays because they shift the take of the book a lot higher. That’s really good but those games come up very rarely.  There are times when a parlay can be beneficial.  For example when a really good offense plays a really good defense, you can play the offense with the over or the defense with the under and one of those will usually pay out.

14.    Screw your instincts: They’re overrated.  Who you think is going to win is never correct just because your instincts told you so.  Some bettors claim to have success with “just betting what my instincts tell me” but that’s a load of crap.  Betting on instincts just won’t win consistently.  You may get lucky for a while but in the long run you can’t win.  Look for value plays instead of relying on uneducated, random guesses.

15.    Don’t get to emotionally invested: Often in betting, a hot streak will get you too high or a cold streak will do the reverse.  The key is to remove the extreme highs and lows and keep an even keel.