The NFL Guru

While winning against sports books is tough and doing so consistently is near impossible, these tips will give you the upper hand against sports books.  If used effectively and consistently these tips will help you make you a profit as they’ve done to me.  The goal here isn’t to completely eliminate your losses, for obvious reasons, but my aim is to help you minimize them.  Here are 14 surefire ways to beat the sports books.

1.    Be prepared to lose: The odds are always against you, always.  The good news is that the usual “take” for the sports books is only 2.5 %, which means you, only have to win 53 % to make a profit.  That’s still extremely difficult to do consistently though so be prepared to take some lumps along the road.

2.    Realize you’re not smarter than the bookmakers: No offense but the amount of knowledge you have is nowhere near that of the guys at sports books.  The guys who, “make the numbers on the sides”, oddsmaker-speak for setting the point spreads on each of the games, are incredibly smart.  They know how you’re going to bet before you do, and allow for your prejudices.  Trying to outsmart these guys isn’t going to work, instead try to get these guys on your side.  We’ll get into how to get them on your side a little bit later on.

3.    Know your opponent: As a bettor you’re betting against both the sports books and every other bettor as well.  Vegas tries to get half of the betting population on either side of each game and they’ll adjust the betting lines to do so.  Therefore if you see that 90 % of the betting population is on the opposite side of you wait until the last moment to place your bet as the line will probably improve for the team with 10 % of the money.

4.    Make your own lines and then compare them to Vegas’ lines: Before you even look at Vegas’ lines for a certain game analyze the game in your mind.  A predicted score and any variables that may affect that score- like injuries or weather- then compare your line to the line that Vegas has set.  This gives you an indication of whether you’d like to bet on the game or not.  If your line is really close to theirs’ the game is basically a toss up and you should avoid it but if you get more than 3 points difference than there is potential for a win.

5.    Look for value: Don’t bet games that you can’t pick a winner.  If you’re undecided and you’re betting a game your leaving it completely to chance and you won’t win consistently by doing this.  Very few lines have any real value, and you should focus on the games that do.  Betting the ones that don’t usually results in losses.

6.    Realize the obvious pick is usually wrong: This is a concept that many bettors don’t understand or just refuse to acknowledge but the reality is that sports books don’t like to give away money.  About once every week there is a game that seems to have an obvious pick.  These are the games you want to AVOID because they are usually sucker bets.  They entice you with seemingly biased lines when really they know something you don’t- injuries that aren’t made public and really overrated teams seem to be the most common.  Don’t be the fool who gets sucked into betting these games because most of the time you’ll lose.  This can sometimes be shown by over 90% of the public being on one side of the bet.  Beware of these situations.

7.    Bet against the public consensus: The public has favorites, as do most people and sports books are aware of the public’s tendencies and biases.  Big tendencies include betting on the certain “public” teams, betting on the favorites, the over and putting too much emphasis on recent success.  These are some of the things that cause the biased lines which create opportunities for you.  Therefore you should generally bet against the public and take the opposite teams because Vegas accounts for these tendencies by putting more value on the opposite plays.  Still following?

8.    Don’t bet more than a few games each week: Some bettors seem to think that they have the best chance of winning if they bet on a lot of games.  They don’t seem to realize that by doing this you undermine your own knowledge and predictions by spreading out your bets.  Quality over quantity is crucial in betting.  Value picks will win, the rest are 50-50.  Don’t waste your time making picks on lines with little to no value.  Instead focus your time on finding good value in a few lines and bet those select few.

9.    Don’t bet with or against your heart: This is a tricky subject for some but it depends on your attitude as a bettor.  A casual bettor generally likes betting on their favorite team because it adds to the intensity of the game.  While this is good and fun for a casual bettor, you won’t win any money by doing this.  If you plan on winning you can’t worry about who you like or dislike- it just comes down to 53 guys that you think will beat another group of 53 guys on a particular day.  No allegiances can come in between you and your winnings.

10.    Look for trends: Many sites like covers.com provide lists of trends for each game.  The key is finding the most relevant and important trends and applying them.  If a team is “32-3-12 following a home loss on Sunday night games while playing on artificial turf” that usually means nothing, don’t let that sway your judgment.  It’s major ones like how a team is doing coming off a win or coming off a loss or playing against really good teams that matter.  Keep those in mind when you’re figuring out your lines for # 4 on this list.

11.    Shop around for the best line: Different sports books have different lines for each game.  Look for the best one for your chosen bet because that half a point that you gain could make all the difference.  In tip # 1 I told you that bookies take 2.5 % off the top, well this is your chance to eliminate that advantage.  By getting the best line each time you bet, you switch that all-important advantage over to your side.

12.    Bet on good coaches: This may seem like an odd one but in clutch situations, the better coach usually prevails.  If one coach is significantly better then the other than that gives one team a huge advantage that is usually overlooked by the general public.  Take coaches into account when making your predictions because they’re an important aspect of winning games.

13.    Beware of the parlay: Parlays are a big source of income for bookies.  They entice you with big payoffs but rarely payout.  In general, it’s best to avoid betting parlays because they shift the take of the book a lot higher. That’s really good but those games come up very rarely.  There are times when a parlay can be beneficial.  For example when a really good offense plays a really good defense, you can play the offense with the over or the defense with the under and one of those will usually pay out.

14.    Screw your instincts: They’re overrated.  Who you think is going to win is never correct just because your instincts told you so.  Some bettors claim to have success with “just betting what my instincts tell me” but that’s a load of crap.  Betting on instincts just won’t win consistently.  You may get lucky for a while but in the long run you can’t win.  Look for value plays instead of relying on uneducated, random guesses.

15.    Don’t get to emotionally invested: Often in betting, a hot streak will get you too high or a cold streak will do the reverse.  The key is to remove the extreme highs and lows and keep an even keel.

11. Buffalo Bills- The Bills, during last off-season acquired some important players that are now high on the depth chart. But their pass rush needed improvement (Bills sacks this season= 24 which is 4th last in NFL). On April 25th, 2009, that slightly changed. With the 11th overall pick, the Bills chose Aaron Maybin, right end from Penn State, weighing 249 and who bress pressed 22 times at the combine. A solid pick to shore up the pass rush which was formerly lacking.

GRADE= B+

12. Denver Broncos- Ever since 2004 when the Broncos traded Running Back Clinton Portis to the ‘Skins, Denver has had the most difficulty in the NFL finding a 16-week, full-time RB. So Denver drafted Knowshon Moreno, former SEC Rookie Of The Year and teammate of Matt Stafford. Knowshon is a great back and can help compensate for the loss of Jay Cutler. They targeted their man, and got him and how can you fault them for that.

GRADE= B+

13. Washington Redskins- Was the top defensive lineman in the game in Albert Haynesworth enough for the Redskins? Apparently not. After signing Haynesworth, they used their 13th pick on DE from Texas, Brian Orakpo. Not that Brian isn’t a threat to the opposing QB because he can really get off the ball and pressure the QB but I would not have gone there. My choice would have been middle linebacker, Brian Cushing due to their aging linebacking core.

GRADE= B-

14. New Orleans Saints- The Saints chose Cornerback from Ohio State, Malcolm Jenkins. Michael won the state title in the 400-meter dash as a junior. With this addition the Saints are a lot closer to fixing the gaping hole in their defensive backfield from last season. Good pick for both value and position.

GRADE= A-

15. Houston Texans- The Texans drafted Brian Cushing, the first of 4 USC linebackers chosen in the first two rounds. Cushing did incredibly at the combine, showing his amazing balance between speed (40 yard dash= 4.64) and strength (bench press score= 30). Brian is one of the most athletic players drafted this year. Cushing also was named the Defensive MVP of the Rose Bowl Game. He helps an already solid Texans defense.

GRADE= A-

16. San Diego Chargers- The Chargers went with an unexpected choice in Outside Linebacker, Larry English who had 31.5 career sacks and won the Mid-American Conference MVP award, and fourth team All-American. San Diego’s first choice was Brian Cushing until Houston chose him one pick earlier. He will help rush the passer along with Shawn Merriman next season and into the future.

GRADE= C

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jeff Garcia isn’t getting any younger. And with an aging team, drafts are very important. The Bucs drafted Kansas State Quarterback Josh Freeman 17th overall as the third quarterback chosen. Josh is an amazing prospect and I believe that he will get his get his fair share of starts, but probably not immediately. After all, at 6’6, 250 and a career passer rating of 124.8, the sky is the limit. This is a heavy developmental pick though.

GRADE= B-

18. Denver Broncos- As the Bronco’s second pick in the 09’ draft, they selected the Tennessee defensive end and linebacker, Robert Ayers. Robert is solid in all aspects of his game with good speed, good strength, and good college body of work. Though a steady pick, may not have enormous upside of other similar players in his class like Orakpo and Maybin.

GRADE= B

19. Philadelphia Eagles- Coming out of College early, Jeremy Maclin is the perfect wideout for the Eagles. Maclin runs a 4.43 40yd dash and is 6’6. This provides the speed and the target the Eagles need opposite DeSean Jackson. I would much rather him than the comparable Percy Harvin. This was an incredible draft for them. Watch out NFC East.

GRADE= A+

20. Detroit Lions- This was a very productive draft for the Lions. They got a solid Quarterback in Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew, a Tight End to throw to. Brandon is an outstanding blocker too. Good value at 20 for a player with his ability and character.

GRADE= A-

The debate is about to begin.

Who is going to have the better pro career: Mark Sanchez or Matthew Stafford? I’m not sure if there has been a bigger debate about two quarterbacks since Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were drafted No. 1 and 2 in 1998. We all know how that turned out.

Let’s look at several attributes.

1) Physical Makeup

Matthew Stafford - Height 6′2 1/4 Weight 225 Lbs

Mark Sanchez - Height 6′2 11/8 Weight 228 Lbs

Obviously they are very similar in height and weight. No particular advantage for either there. Stafford may a have little bit stronger arm of the two.

Neither Stafford or Sanchez will wow you with their mobility, though they are both mobile enough, and it won’t be an issue with them in the NFL.

Advantage - Draw: To Close to call here. Physically they are as close as two quarterbacks can be.

2) College Pedigree

Matthew Stafford played with the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens. The Dawgs were one of the top teams in the SEC during Stafford’s career. Stafford played in front of rabid fans, for and against him. He’s no stranger to high pressure games and went 27-7 as a starter at UGA.

Author Poll

Who will have the better NFL career?

* Marc Sanchez

* Mattew Stafford

vote to see results

Under Coach Marc Richt, the Dawgs have produced um well, exactly zero NFL starting quarterbacks. David Greene, drafted in 2005, is already out the of the NFL. DJ Shockley is in the Atlanta, but he’s not going to beat out Matt Ryan.

Mark Sanchez played with the USC Trojans, where they are producing NFL caliber quarterbacks at a rate not seen since the 1980s Miami Hurricanes.

Carson Palmer, Matt Leinhart, Matt Cassel have either started or are the starting quarterbacks on their respective teams.

No college team runs a more pure NFL offense than the USC Trojans and coach Pete Carroll and the USC Trojans are not only one of the best Pac-10 teams, they are among the best teams in the country every single year.

Advantage - Sanchez: If you can start at USC, it’s a good bet you can play the NFL. Heck you don’t even have to start at USC, just be there, ask Matt Cassel.

3) Team they will play for

Matt Stafford is headed to quarterback Sibera. Quick name a pro bowl quarterback from Detroit. You have to back to 1972, and Greg Landry to find one.

Stafford signed a six-year, $78 million deal that includes $41.7 million guaranteed. That’s the largest ever contract by NFL draft pick.

Going to a team that didn’t win a game last year, that’s an an awful lot of pressure on a young quarterback, because once Duante Culpepper is benched by game 4, Stafford will be look upon as a savior. At least he has Calvin Johnson to throw to.

Mark Sanchez is headed to the New York Jets. I think this is a super fit. Big Media Market? Sanchez came from Los Angeles. An aging Brett Farve led the Jets to the brink of the playoffs with a 9-7 record, and while the offense isn’t made up of superstars, there is solid talent there.

RB Thomas Jones, RB Leon Washington and Jerricho Crotchery are very capable NFL players. It’s hard to say at the moment whether Sanchez, Kellen Clemons, or somebody else starts on opening day, but given the rest of the Jets’ roster, Sanchez won’t have to do it alone.

Advantage - Sanchez: Sanchez will be under a media blitz in New York, but playing at USC and Los Angeles he’s equipped to handle to this. Stafford will have so much pressure on him to win in Detroit the next 2-3 years, it might be more than he can handle.

Overall - Sanchez: With the physical attributes virtually equal, Stafford is walking into a more difficult situation with Detroit. Sanchez’s collegiate background is a huge advantage as well.

This doesn’t mean Stafford can’t be a fine NFL QB, I just think Sanchez has been prepped better for the rigors of the NFL.

Who Will Have the Better NFL Career: Marc Sanchez or Matthew Stafford? | Bleacher Report.

1. Detroit Lions- With the 1st overall pick, the 0-16 Lions selected Matthew Stafford, the QB from Georgia. With a new logo and a new QB, perhaps Detroit will win some a game next season. But there is one question. Should Stafford start week 1? If I were Jim Schwartz, this kid would be my go-to guy. The Lions have a couple more subpar years to rebuild before expectations rise. Matt Stafford, with a team like this, will have a lot of pressure on his back playing 16 weeks per season but he’ll learn more from on the field experience than holding a clipboard.

GRADE: B

2. St. Louis Rams- The Rams chose Jason Smith, the offensive tackle from Baylor (the obvious choice) to enhance their offensive line so that Mark Bulger/Kyle Boller will have time to throw to on of their terrible wideouts. Since Torry Holt left St. Louis, maybe the strong, fast, and lanky wideout, Michael Crabtree would be the more sensible choice to help your passing offense. Though, Jason Smith is also there to help Steven Jackson as well. In the second round, the Rams picked James Laurinaitis at linebacker, together these two top tier players will help the Rams compete in the NFC West.

GRADE: A-

3. Kansas City Chiefs- chose the LSU powerhouse, Tyson Jackson at Defensive end. Tyson was projected to be a mid first round pick until he showed his abilities at the scouting combine a month ago. Jackson will start at defensive end with Tamba Hali. But can the 293-pounder improve the Chiefs unsatisfactory record of 3-13?

GRADE: C

4. Seattle Seahawks- No surprise for the Seahawks choosing the steady Aaron Curry at Left Outside Linebacker from Wake Forest. Aaron will be starting with Darryl Tapp, Rocky Bernard, Lofa Tatupu and Patrick Kerney among others in the Seattle front seven.   With the recently acquired T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle is looking okay, especially their new addition to the front seven. But still with an aging Matt Hasselbeck, I will be surprised if the Seahawks compete for the playoffs.

GRADE: B

5. New York Jets- Very surprising. Cleveland was originally in this position but the jets offered them a trade they could not refuse. The Jets gave up Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett…wait for it…Ratliff, and SS Abe Elam as well as the Jets 1st Round draft pick at 17 for the Brown’s 5th overall pick. With that the Jets chose Mark Sanchez- the Southern Cal QB. Though, without wideout Laveranues Coles, New York City isn’t the perfect atmosphere for a rookie, Sanchez is the kind of player who is very mature despite his lack of experience and could thrive in this position.

GRADE: B-

6. Cincinnati Bengals- the Bengals chose the second Offensive Tackle with the last name of Smith. This time it was Andre Smith of Alabama with a terrible bench press score for a 331-pounder of 19, however, he has outstanding feet to block any defensive end. There have been questions whether Chad Johnson will stay in Cincinnati, but Ocho Cinco isn’t going anywhere, and without Housh, Laveraneus Coles is a fine replacement. In addition to Smith, in the second round, the Bengals drafted Rey Maualuga at middle linebacker.

GRADE: B+

7. Oakland Raiders- The 7th pick in the draft was the reach as the draft. The Raiders chose Darrius Heyward-Bey from Maryland. This speedy wideout was projected to be picked late in the first round. Though the receiver with the most hype in Michael Crabtree was still available, Michael was injured and didn’t run the 40 so Oakland chose Darrius instead. Heyward-Bey will fit in very well with the Raiders Juggernaut styled passing game. As the 47th pick, the Raiders selected Michael Mitchell, the safety from Ohio to help out Michael Huff and Nnamdi Asomugha in the secondary.

GRADE: D+

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- the struggling Jags chose Eugene Monroe at OT.  Again, I believe that Michael Crabtree would be the obvious choice for Jacksonville. On the other hand, the Jaguars have already acquired Torry Holt from the Rams.  The Jags have recently acquired the aging Tra Thomas and with Monroe they have a solid tackle position.

GRADE: B-

9. Green Bay Packers- B. J. Raji from Boston College was the steal of the 1st Round. This 6-2 337-pound Defensive Tackle will compliment the Packers aggressive front seven. Raji, the All-American DT, was projected to be chosen 3rd to the Kansas City Chiefs but KC went with another DT in Tyson Jackson. I think that Raji could grow into one of the elite DTs in the NFL very soon. Raji will help the Packers mostly in rush defense forcing the opposing offense to go at the Packers defense through the air.

GRADE: A

10. San Francisco 49ers- Finally, Michael Crabtree will be going to a home in San Fran. Though the 49ers are 7-3 under former Bears Middle Linebacker, Mike Singletary, the 49ers still have not chosen their Quarterback. But they can sort that out. The Texas Tech Wide Receiver with a 4.55 40-yard dash (did not participate in combine) is compared to the Lions Wideout, Calvin Johnson, with less speed.

GRADE: A